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FK Becej vs OFK Vrbas — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
OFK Vrbas
OFK Vrbas
3/29/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FK Becej45%
×Draw24%
OFK Vrbas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.65
OFK Vrbas
1.34

FK Becej creates 23% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 30 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
OFK Vrbas
1.13

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
OFK Vrbas
1.60

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
OFK Vrbas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

OFK Vrbas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
69%
FK Becej or OFK Vrbas
76%
Draw or OFK Vrbas
55%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
23%
OFK Vrbas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
81%
FK Becej 2+ goals
49%
FK Becej 3+ goals
23%
OFK Vrbas 1+ goals
74%
OFK Vrbas 2+ goals
39%
OFK Vrbas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
59%
OFK Vrbas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

OFK Vrbas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + OFK Vrbas defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

OFK Vrbas attack 1.13 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Becej scores more
45%
level
24%
OFK Vrbas scores more
31%

FK Becej at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: FK Becej 0–3 OFK Vrbas

OFK Vrbas beat FK Becej 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.