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FK Becej vs Metalac GM — Prva Liga 2018

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
1 – 1
Metalac GM
Metalac GM
12/1/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 20Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Becej42%
×Draw28%
Metalac GM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.26
Metalac GM
0.99

FK Becej creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.26
Metalac GM
0.86

allows per match

FK Becej
1.11
Metalac GM
1.26

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Metalac GM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
71%
FK Becej or Metalac GM
72%
Draw or Metalac GM
58%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
19%
Metalac GM wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
72%
FK Becej 2+ goals
36%
FK Becej 3+ goals
13%
Metalac GM 1+ goals
63%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
26%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
59%
Metalac GM (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.26 + Metalac GM defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

Metalac GM attack 0.86 + FK Becej defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Becej scores more
42%
level
28%
Metalac GM scores more
29%

FK Becej at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Metalac GM

FK Becej and Metalac GM drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej).