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FK Becej vs Javor — Prva Liga 2018

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Javor
Javor
8/29/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 4Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Becej32%
×Draw28%
Javor39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.07
Javor
1.21

Javor creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 54 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.26
Javor
1.30

allows per match

FK Becej
1.11
Javor
0.89

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Javor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Javor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
61%
FK Becej or Javor
72%
Draw or Javor
68%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
13%
Javor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
66%
FK Becej 2+ goals
29%
FK Becej 3+ goals
9%
Javor 1+ goals
70%
Javor 2+ goals
34%
Javor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
45%
Javor (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Javor away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.26 + Javor defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Javor attack 1.30 + FK Becej defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Becej scores more
32%
level
28%
Javor scores more
39%

Javor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: FK Becej 1–3 Javor

Javor beat FK Becej 3-1 in Prva Liga on August 29, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej).