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FK Becej vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
3 – 1
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
5/19/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 35Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

FK Becej63%
×Draw20%
Dunav Stari Banovci17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
2.22
Dunav Stari Banovci
1.06

FK Becej creates 109% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 28 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.57

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.75

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
83%
FK Becej or Dunav Stari Banovci
80%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
37%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
40%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
89%
FK Becej 2+ goals
65%
FK Becej 3+ goals
38%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
65%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
29%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
79%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.22

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FK Becej scores more
63%
level
20%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
17%

FK Becej at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Dunav Stari Banovci

FK Becej beat Dunav Stari Banovci 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.