FK Becej 1–1 Dinamo Pančevo: Result & Stats

FK Becej

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Pančevo

9/14/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

FK Becej45%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Pančevo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK BecejExpected goals in this matchDinamo Pančevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.34

FK Becej

1.65

Dinamo Pančevo

1.34

FK Becej creates 23% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 102 away

1.69

creates per match

1.13

1.56

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

FK Becej

1.69

Dinamo Pančevo

1.13

allows per match

FK Becej

1.56

Dinamo Pančevo

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw

69%

FK Becej or Dinamo Pančevo

76%

Draw or Dinamo Pančevo

55%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+

23%

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals

81%

FK Becej 2+ goals

49%

FK Becej 3+ goals

23%

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals

39%

Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Becej scores more

45%

level

24%

Dinamo Pančevo scores more

31%

FK Becej at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff