FK Becej 5–1 Buducnost Dobanovci: Result & Stats

FK Becej

FT

5 – 1

Buducnost Dobanovci

11/9/2018

Prva Liga · Round 16Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Becej47%

×Draw27%

Buducnost Dobanovci26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK BecejExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Dobanovci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.97

FK Becej

1.40

Buducnost Dobanovci

0.97

FK Becej creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 68 away

1.26

creates per match

0.82

1.11

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

FK Becej

1.26

Buducnost Dobanovci

0.82

allows per match

FK Becej

1.11

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Buducnost Dobanovci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw

74%

FK Becej or Buducnost Dobanovci

73%

Draw or Buducnost Dobanovci

53%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+

23%

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals

75%

FK Becej 2+ goals

41%

FK Becej 3+ goals

17%

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals

62%

Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals

25%

Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)

64%

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Buducnost Dobanovci away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.26 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 0.82 + FK Becej defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Becej scores more

47%

level

27%

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more

26%

FK Becej at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff