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FK Becej vs Bačka 1901 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
4 – 2
Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
5/8/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 33Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FK Becej48%
×Draw23%
Bačka 190130%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.84
Bačka 1901
1.41

FK Becej creates 30% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 27 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
Bačka 1901
1.26

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
Bačka 1901
2.00

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Bačka 1901 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
70%
FK Becej or Bačka 1901
77%
Draw or Bačka 1901
52%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
26%
Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
84%
FK Becej 2+ goals
55%
FK Becej 3+ goals
28%
Bačka 1901 1+ goals
76%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
41%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
62%
Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FK Becej scores more
48%
level
23%
Bačka 1901 scores more
30%

FK Becej at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: FK Becej 4–2 Bačka 1901

FK Becej beat Bačka 1901 4-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.