FK Aksu 0–3 Zhetisay: Result & Stats | Cup

FK Aksu

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Zhetisay

K. Mukhituly 88'

R. Serikkul 59'

R. Abylaykhan 47'

3/13/2024

Cup · Qualifying Round - 1BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Aksu52%

×Draw23%

Zhetisay25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK AksuExpected goals in this matchZhetisay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.25

FK Aksu

1.88

Zhetisay

1.25

FK Aksu creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

FK Aksu

1.00

Zhetisay

1.00

allows per match

FK Aksu

1.50

Zhetisay

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par

Zhetisay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

Zhetisay →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw

75%

FK Aksu or Zhetisay

77%

Draw or Zhetisay

48%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+

29%

Zhetisay wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals

85%

FK Aksu 2+ goals

56%

FK Aksu 3+ goals

29%

Zhetisay 1+ goals

71%

Zhetisay 2+ goals

36%

Zhetisay 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)

67%

Zhetisay (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Zhetisay away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 1.00 + Zhetisay defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Zhetisay attack 1.00 + FK Aksu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

FK Aksu scores more

52%

level

23%

Zhetisay scores more

25%

FK Aksu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

R. Abylaykhan

32'

E. Sarbay

36'

B. Ryskul

39'

T. Agimanov

47'

R. Abylaykhan

50'

K. Mukhituly

57'

D. Duysembek

59'

R. Serikkul

65'

D. Mazhitov

71'

E. Baydrakhmanov← E. Baydrakhmanov

76'

M. TurlybekMissed penalty

84'

D. Kalym← D. Kalym

85'

S. Malikaydar

87'

M. Zakaria

88'

K. Mukhituly

88'

I. Bastar← I. Bastar

88'

T. Zuftarov← T. Zuftarov

88'

B. Ryskul← S. Malikaydar

90+2'

A. Bovkun

90+4'

B. Narzilda← B. Narzilda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff