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FK Aksu vs Taraz Karatau — 1. Division 2019

FK Aksu
FK Aksu
FT
1 – 1
Taraz Karatau
Taraz Karatau
4/11/20211. Division1. Division · Round 1Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FK Aksu64%
×Draw19%
Taraz Karatau17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Aksu
2.30
Taraz Karatau
1.09

FK Aksu creates 111% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 24 away

creates per match

FK Aksu
2.64
Taraz Karatau
1.46

allows per match

FK Aksu
0.73
Taraz Karatau
1.96

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par
Taraz Karatau+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

Taraz Karatau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw
83%
FK Aksu or Taraz Karatau
81%
Draw or Taraz Karatau
36%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+
41%
Taraz Karatau wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals
90%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
67%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
40%
Taraz Karatau 1+ goals
66%
Taraz Karatau 2+ goals
30%
Taraz Karatau 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)
79%
Taraz Karatau (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Taraz Karatau away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 2.64 + Taraz Karatau defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.30

Taraz Karatau attack 1.46 + FK Aksu defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FK Aksu scores more
64%
level
19%
Taraz Karatau scores more
17%

FK Aksu at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Aksu vs Taraz Karatau

FK Aksu and Taraz Karatau drew 1-1 in 1. Division on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Pavlodar.