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FK Aksu vs Okzhetpes — Premier League 2019

FK Aksu
FK Aksu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
9/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FK Aksu47%
×Draw25%
Okzhetpes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Aksu
1.57
Okzhetpes
1.13

FK Aksu creates 39% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 59 away

creates per match

FK Aksu
1.38
Okzhetpes
1.14

allows per match

FK Aksu
1.12
Okzhetpes
1.76

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par
Okzhetpes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

Okzhetpes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw
73%
FK Aksu or Okzhetpes
75%
Draw or Okzhetpes
53%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+
24%
Okzhetpes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals
79%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
46%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
21%
Okzhetpes 1+ goals
68%
Okzhetpes 2+ goals
31%
Okzhetpes 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)
63%
Okzhetpes (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

Okzhetpes away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 1.38 + Okzhetpes defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Okzhetpes attack 1.14 + FK Aksu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Aksu scores more
47%
level
25%
Okzhetpes scores more
27%

FK Aksu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Aksu vs Okzhetpes

Okzhetpes beat FK Aksu 1-0 in Premier League on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Pavlodar.