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FK Aksu vs Kyzyl-Zhar II — 1. Division 2019

FK Aksu
FK Aksu
FT
5 – 0
Kyzyl-Zhar II
Kyzyl-Zhar II
5/11/20211. Division1. Division · Round 5Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FK Aksu84%
×Draw11%
Kyzyl-Zhar II6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Aksu
3.19
Kyzyl-Zhar II
0.73

FK Aksu creates 337% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

FK Aksu
2.64
Kyzyl-Zhar II
0.73

allows per match

FK Aksu
0.73
Kyzyl-Zhar II
3.73

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par
Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw
94%
FK Aksu or Kyzyl-Zhar II
89%
Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar II
16%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+
66%
Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals
96%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
82%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
60%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals
52%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals
17%
Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)
94%
Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 2.64 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 3.19

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 0.73 + FK Aksu defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

FK Aksu scores more
84%
level
11%
Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more
6%

FK Aksu at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Aksu vs Kyzyl-Zhar II

FK Aksu beat Kyzyl-Zhar II 5-0 in 1. Division on May 11, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Pavlodar.