FK Aksu 1–1 Kairat Almaty: Result & Stats | Cup

FK Aksu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kairat Almaty

7/31/2022

Cup · Group Stage - 4Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FK Aksu27%

×Draw24%

Kairat Almaty49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK AksuExpected goals in this matchKairat Almaty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.68

FK Aksu

1.18

Kairat Almaty

1.68

Kairat Almaty creates 42% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.86

1.50

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

FK Aksu

1.00

Kairat Almaty

1.86

allows per match

FK Aksu

1.50

Kairat Almaty

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

Kairat Almaty →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw

51%

FK Aksu or Kairat Almaty

76%

Draw or Kairat Almaty

73%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+

11%

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals

69%

FK Aksu 2+ goals

33%

FK Aksu 3+ goals

12%

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

81%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

50%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)

35%

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Kairat Almaty away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 1.00 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Kairat Almaty attack 1.86 + FK Aksu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Aksu scores more

27%

level

24%

Kairat Almaty scores more

49%

Kairat Almaty at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff