FK Aksu 2–0 Akademiya Ontustik: Result & Stats

FK Aksu

FT

2 – 0

Akademiya Ontustik

7/12/2021

1. Division · Round 12Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FK Aksu66%

×Draw19%

Akademiya Ontustik15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK AksuExpected goals in this matchAkademiya Ontustik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.98

FK Aksu

2.29

Akademiya Ontustik

0.98

FK Aksu creates 134% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 76 away

2.64

creates per match

1.24

0.73

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

FK Aksu

2.64

Akademiya Ontustik

1.24

allows per match

FK Aksu

0.73

Akademiya Ontustik

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw

85%

FK Aksu or Akademiya Ontustik

81%

Draw or Akademiya Ontustik

34%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+

43%

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals

90%

FK Aksu 2+ goals

66%

FK Aksu 3+ goals

40%

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

62%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

26%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)

82%

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.95 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 2.64 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.29

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.24 + FK Aksu defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FK Aksu scores more

66%

level

19%

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

15%

FK Aksu at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff