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Fjolnir vs Magni — 2. Deild 2025

Fjolnir
Fjolnir
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Magni
Magni
5/1/20262. Deild2. Deild · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fjolnir72%
×Draw15%
Magni13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjolnir
3.00
Magni
1.25

Fjolnir creates 140% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Fjolnir
2.67
Magni
1.00

allows per match

Fjolnir
1.50
Magni
3.33

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par
Magni+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Magni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw
87%
Fjolnir or Magni
85%
Draw or Magni
28%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+
52%
Magni wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals
95%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
79%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
56%
Magni 1+ goals
71%
Magni 2+ goals
36%
Magni 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)
84%
Magni (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Magni away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 2.67 + Magni defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.00

Magni attack 1.00 + Fjolnir defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fjolnir scores more
72%
level
15%
Magni scores more
13%

Fjolnir at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs Magni

Fjolnir beat Magni 4-1 in 2. Deild on May 1, 2026.