Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fjolnir vs IA Akranes — 1. Deild 2026

Fjolnir
Fjolnir
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
IA Akranes
IA Akranes
8/11/20231. Deild1. Deild · Round 16Extra völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Fjolnir35%
×Draw23%
IA Akranes42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjolnir
1.60
IA Akranes
1.78

IA Akranes creates 11% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 22 away

creates per match

Fjolnir
2.02
IA Akranes
2.09

allows per match

Fjolnir
1.47
IA Akranes
1.18

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par
IA Akranes+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

IA Akranes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw
58%
Fjolnir or IA Akranes
77%
Draw or IA Akranes
65%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+
17%
IA Akranes wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals
80%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
47%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
22%
IA Akranes 1+ goals
83%
IA Akranes 2+ goals
53%
IA Akranes 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)
45%
IA Akranes (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.47 · 57 matches

IA Akranes away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 2.02 + IA Akranes defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.60

IA Akranes attack 2.09 + Fjolnir defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fjolnir scores more
35%
level
23%
IA Akranes scores more
42%

IA Akranes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IA Akranes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs IA Akranes

IA Akranes beat Fjolnir 1-0 in 1. Deild on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at Extra völlurinn in Reykjavík.