Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fjardabyggd vs Kórdrengir — 2. Deild 2018

Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd
FT
1 – 6
Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
10/3/20202. Deild2. Deild · Round 20Fjarðabyggðarhöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fjardabyggd21%
×Draw22%
Kórdrengir57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjardabyggd
1.13
Kórdrengir
2.00

Kórdrengir creates 77% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 10 away

creates per match

Fjardabyggd
1.65
Kórdrengir
2.10

allows per match

Fjardabyggd
1.91
Kórdrengir
0.60

finishing

Fjardabyggd+0.00on par
Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjardabyggd ↓

Kórdrengir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fjardabyggd or draw
43%
Fjardabyggd or Kórdrengir
78%
Draw or Kórdrengir
79%

Winning margin

Fjardabyggd wins by 2+
8%
Kórdrengir wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Fjardabyggd 1+ goals
68%
Fjardabyggd 2+ goals
31%
Fjardabyggd 3+ goals
11%
Kórdrengir 1+ goals
86%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
59%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)
27%
Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjardabyggd at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.91 · 43 matches

Kórdrengir away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjardabyggd attack 1.65 + Kórdrengir defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kórdrengir attack 2.10 + Fjardabyggd defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fjardabyggd scores more
21%
level
22%
Kórdrengir scores more
57%

Kórdrengir at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kórdrengir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjardabyggd vs Kórdrengir

Kórdrengir beat Fjardabyggd 6-1 in 2. Deild on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Fjarðabyggðarhöllin in Reyðarfjörður.