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Fjardabyggd vs KF — 2. Deild 2018

Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd
FT
0 – 4
KF
KF
9/4/20212. Deild2. Deild · Round 20Eskjuvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Fjardabyggd47%
×Draw21%
KF32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjardabyggd
2.12
KF
1.72

Fjardabyggd creates 23% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 55 away

creates per match

Fjardabyggd
1.65
KF
1.53

allows per match

Fjardabyggd
1.91
KF
2.58

finishing

Fjardabyggd+0.00on par
KF+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjardabyggd ↓

KF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Fjardabyggd or draw
68%
Fjardabyggd or KF
79%
Draw or KF
53%

Winning margin

Fjardabyggd wins by 2+
27%
KF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fjardabyggd 1+ goals
88%
Fjardabyggd 2+ goals
62%
Fjardabyggd 3+ goals
35%
KF 1+ goals
82%
KF 2+ goals
51%
KF 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)
60%
KF (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjardabyggd at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.91 · 43 matches

KF away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.58 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjardabyggd attack 1.65 + KF defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.12

KF attack 1.53 + Fjardabyggd defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fjardabyggd scores more
47%
level
21%
KF scores more
32%

Fjardabyggd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fjardabyggd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjardabyggd vs KF

KF beat Fjardabyggd 4-0 in 2. Deild on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Eskjuvöllur in Eskifjörður.