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Fjardabyggd vs Huginn — 2. Deild 2018

Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd
FT
2 – 0
Huginn
Huginn
6/15/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 7Eskjuvöllur (Eskifjörður)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fjardabyggd65%
×Draw18%
Huginn18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjardabyggd
2.55
Huginn
1.27

Fjardabyggd creates 101% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fjardabyggd
1.65
Huginn
0.64

allows per match

Fjardabyggd
1.91
Huginn
3.45

finishing

Fjardabyggd+0.00on par
Huginn+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjardabyggd ↓

Huginn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Fjardabyggd or draw
82%
Fjardabyggd or Huginn
82%
Draw or Huginn
35%

Winning margin

Fjardabyggd wins by 2+
43%
Huginn wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fjardabyggd 1+ goals
92%
Fjardabyggd 2+ goals
72%
Fjardabyggd 3+ goals
46%
Huginn 1+ goals
72%
Huginn 2+ goals
36%
Huginn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)
79%
Huginn (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjardabyggd at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.91 · 43 matches

Huginn away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjardabyggd attack 1.65 + Huginn defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.55

Huginn attack 0.64 + Fjardabyggd defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fjardabyggd scores more
65%
level
18%
Huginn scores more
18%

Fjardabyggd at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fjardabyggd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Fjardabyggd 2–0 Huginn

Fjardabyggd beat Huginn 2-0 in 2. Deild on June 15, 2018.

The match was played at Eskjuvöllur (Eskifjörður).