Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Spyrnir — Cup 2019

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Spyrnir
Spyrnir
4/5/2025CupCup · 2nd RoundFjarðabyggðarhöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir96%
×Draw3%
Spyrnir1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
4.50
Spyrnir
0.33

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir creates 1264% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
3.67
Spyrnir
0.33

allows per match

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
0.33
Spyrnir
5.33

finishing

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir+0.00on par
Spyrnir+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir ↓

Spyrnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–016%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (16%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir or draw
99%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir or Spyrnir
97%
Draw or Spyrnir
4%

Winning margin

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir wins by 2+
88%
Spyrnir wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 1+ goals
99%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 2+ goals
93%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 3+ goals
79%
Spyrnir 1+ goals
28%
Spyrnir 2+ goals
4%
Spyrnir 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (draw refunded)
99%
Spyrnir (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Spyrnir away — creates 0.33, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir attack 3.67 + Spyrnir defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.50

Spyrnir attack 0.33 + Fjardabyggd / Leiknir defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir scores more
96%
level
3%
Spyrnir scores more
1%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Fjardabyggd / Leiknir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Spyrnir

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir beat Spyrnir 3-0 in Cup on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Fjarðabyggðarhöllin in Reyðarfjörður.