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Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs KFG — 2. Deild 2026

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KFG
KFG
8/26/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 19Fjarðabyggðarhöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir60%
×Draw18%
KFG21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
2.58
KFG
1.50

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir creates 72% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 50 away

creates per match

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
2.69
KFG
1.24

allows per match

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.76
KFG
2.46

finishing

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir+0.00on par
KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir ↓

KFG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir or draw
79%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir or KFG
82%
Draw or KFG
40%

Winning margin

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir wins by 2+
40%
KFG wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 1+ goals
92%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 2+ goals
72%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 3+ goals
47%
KFG 1+ goals
78%
KFG 2+ goals
44%
KFG 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (draw refunded)
74%
KFG (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

KFG away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir attack 2.69 + KFG defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.58

KFG attack 1.24 + Fjardabyggd / Leiknir defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir scores more
60%
level
18%
KFG scores more
21%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fjardabyggd / Leiknir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs KFG

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir beat KFG 2-1 in 2. Deild on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Fjarðabyggðarhöllin in Reyðarfjörður.