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Fjøra vs Årdal — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Fjøra
Fjøra
FT
5 – 1
Årdal
Årdal
9/4/20213. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 5Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fjøra72%
×Draw15%
Årdal14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjøra
3.12
Årdal
1.33

Fjøra creates 135% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fjøra
2.40
Årdal
0.67

allows per match

Fjøra
2.00
Årdal
3.83

finishing

Fjøra+0.00on par
Årdal+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjøra ↓

Årdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Fjøra or draw
86%
Fjøra or Årdal
85%
Draw or Årdal
28%

Winning margin

Fjøra wins by 2+
52%
Årdal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fjøra 1+ goals
95%
Fjøra 2+ goals
81%
Fjøra 3+ goals
59%
Årdal 1+ goals
74%
Årdal 2+ goals
38%
Årdal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fjøra (draw refunded)
84%
Årdal (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjøra at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Årdal away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjøra attack 2.40 + Årdal defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 3.12

Årdal attack 0.67 + Fjøra defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fjøra scores more
72%
level
15%
Årdal scores more
14%

Fjøra at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fjøra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjøra vs Årdal

Fjøra beat Årdal 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Fosshaugane Campus in Sogndal.