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Fisterra vs Bergantiños — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Fisterra
Fisterra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bergantiños
Bergantiños
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Campo de fútbol Ara Solis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fisterra28%
×Draw26%
Bergantiños46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fisterra
1.08
Bergantiños
1.48

Bergantiños creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 44 away

creates per match

Fisterra
1.24
Bergantiños
1.32

allows per match

Fisterra
1.65
Bergantiños
0.93

finishing

Fisterra+0.00on par
Bergantiños+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fisterra ↓

Bergantiños →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fisterra or draw
54%
Fisterra or Bergantiños
74%
Draw or Bergantiños
72%

Winning margin

Fisterra wins by 2+
11%
Bergantiños wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Fisterra 1+ goals
66%
Fisterra 2+ goals
29%
Fisterra 3+ goals
10%
Bergantiños 1+ goals
77%
Bergantiños 2+ goals
43%
Bergantiños 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fisterra (draw refunded)
37%
Bergantiños (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fisterra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Bergantiños away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fisterra attack 1.24 + Bergantiños defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bergantiños attack 1.32 + Fisterra defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fisterra scores more
28%
level
26%
Bergantiños scores more
46%

Bergantiños at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fisterra vs Bergantiños

Bergantiños beat Fisterra 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Ara Solis in Fisterra.