Fish United 1–3 TPV: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Fish United

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

TPV

4/26/2024

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundKauppi 3 tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fish United12%

×Draw12%

TPV76%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fish UnitedExpected goals in this matchTPV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

4.13

Fish United

1.71

TPV

4.13

TPV creates 142% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

2.50

creates per match

5.75

2.50

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Fish United

2.50

TPV

5.75

allows per match

Fish United

2.50

TPV

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fish United+0.00on par

TPV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fish United ↓

TPV →

0–00%

0–11%

0–23%

0–34%

0–44%

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–47%

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

65%35%

Double chance

Fish United or draw

24%

Fish United or TPV

88%

Draw or TPV

88%

Winning margin

Fish United wins by 2+

TPV wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

Fish United 1+ goals

82%

Fish United 2+ goals

51%

Fish United 3+ goals

24%

TPV 1+ goals

98%

TPV 2+ goals

91%

TPV 3+ goals

75%

Draw no bet

Fish United (draw refunded)

14%

TPV (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fish United at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

TPV away — creates 5.75, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fish United attack 2.50 + TPV defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

TPV attack 5.75 + Fish United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 4.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Fish United scores more

12%

level

12%

TPV scores more

76%

TPV at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "TPV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff