Fish United 0–4 SalPa: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Fish United

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

SalPa

4/14/2026

Suomen Cup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fish United24%

×Draw19%

SalPa57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fish UnitedExpected goals in this matchSalPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

2.55

Fish United

1.65

SalPa

2.55

SalPa creates 55% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

2.50

creates per match

2.60

2.50

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Fish United

2.50

SalPa

2.60

allows per match

Fish United

2.50

SalPa

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fish United+0.00on par

SalPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fish United ↓

SalPa →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Fish United or draw

43%

Fish United or SalPa

81%

Draw or SalPa

76%

Winning margin

Fish United wins by 2+

11%

SalPa wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Fish United 1+ goals

81%

Fish United 2+ goals

49%

Fish United 3+ goals

23%

SalPa 1+ goals

92%

SalPa 2+ goals

72%

SalPa 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Fish United (draw refunded)

30%

SalPa (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fish United at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

SalPa away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fish United attack 2.50 + SalPa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

SalPa attack 2.60 + Fish United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fish United scores more

24%

level

19%

SalPa scores more

57%

SalPa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SalPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff