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Fish United vs NoPS — Suomen Cup 2018

Fish United
Fish United
FT
0 – 3
NoPS
NoPS
3/15/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKauppi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fish United15%
×Draw14%
NoPS71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fish United
1.60
NoPS
3.46

NoPS creates 116% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fish United
2.50
NoPS
4.43

allows per match

Fish United
2.50
NoPS
0.71

finishing

Fish United+0.00on par
NoPS+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fish United ↓

NoPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Fish United or draw
29%
Fish United or NoPS
86%
Draw or NoPS
85%

Winning margin

Fish United wins by 2+
6%
NoPS wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Fish United 1+ goals
80%
Fish United 2+ goals
47%
Fish United 3+ goals
22%
NoPS 1+ goals
97%
NoPS 2+ goals
85%
NoPS 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Fish United (draw refunded)
17%
NoPS (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fish United at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

NoPS away — creates 4.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fish United attack 2.50 + NoPS defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

NoPS attack 4.43 + Fish United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Fish United scores more
15%
level
14%
NoPS scores more
71%

NoPS at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "NoPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Fish United 0–3 NoPS

NoPS beat Fish United 3-0 in Suomen Cup on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Kauppi tekonurmi in Tampere.