First Vienna W 3–5 Sturm Graz W: Result & Stats

First Vienna W

FT

3 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Sturm Graz W

D. Lueger 85'

L. Felix 71'

P. Pfanner 50'

Z. Kustrin 87', 69'

M. Spiess 61'

S. Jakobsen 27'

L. Kovar 11' (OG)

8/29/2025

Frauenliga · Round 3Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

First Vienna W37%

×Draw23%

Sturm Graz W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

First Vienna WExpected goals in this matchSturm Graz W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.74

First Vienna W

1.68

Sturm Graz W

1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 65 away

2.29

creates per match

2.18

1.29

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

First Vienna W

2.29

Sturm Graz W

2.18

allows per match

First Vienna W

1.29

Sturm Graz W

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

First Vienna W+0.00on par

Sturm Graz W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna W ↓

Sturm Graz W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

First Vienna W or draw

60%

First Vienna W or Sturm Graz W

77%

Draw or Sturm Graz W

63%

Winning margin

First Vienna W wins by 2+

19%

Sturm Graz W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

First Vienna W 1+ goals

81%

First Vienna W 2+ goals

50%

First Vienna W 3+ goals

24%

Sturm Graz W 1+ goals

82%

Sturm Graz W 2+ goals

52%

Sturm Graz W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

First Vienna W (draw refunded)

48%

Sturm Graz W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Sturm Graz W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna W attack 2.29 + Sturm Graz W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Sturm Graz W attack 2.18 + First Vienna W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

First Vienna W scores more

37%

level

23%

Sturm Graz W scores more

40%

Sturm Graz W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sturm Graz W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

L. KovarOwn goal

27'

S. Jakobsen↳ Z. Kustrin

41'

S. Maierhofer

46'

D. Lueger← H. Fankhauser

50'

P. Pfanner↳ L. Gebert

56'

L. Breznik← L. Mazuchova

61'

L. Felix← I. Sarac

61'

M. Spiess↳ S. Maierhofer

69'

Z. Kustrin↳ S. Grossgasteiger

71'

L. Felix↳ L. Gebert

80'

C. Wasser← A. Osl

85'

R. Krajinovic← S. Grossgasteiger

85'

D. Lueger

87'

Z. Kustrin↳ S. Jakobsen

90+4'

E. Makalic← Z. Kustrin

90+4'

T. Sipka← M. Spiess

First

Sturm

21

Gritzner

4

Petersen

26

Tragl

15

A

Maierhofe

19

A

▼

Grossgast

25

Riesenbec

27

Brandl

7

▼

Mazuchova

28

⚽

▼

Spiess

14

⚽A

Jakobsen

23

⚽2A

▼

Kustrin

25

Wende

11

Kerschbau

6

▼

Osl

4

Schneider

8

Amuchie

19

▼

Fankhause

15

⚽

Pfanner

14

🥅

Kovar

29

A

Gebert

26

▼

Sarac

21

Hahn

Manager: Mark Dobrounig

46'▲D. Lueger←▼H. Fankhauser

61'▲L. Felix←▼I. Sarac

80'▲C. Wasser←▼A. Osl

First Vienna W substitutes

1Piplits20Gorges13Felix10Hocherl17Tomczak7Wasser9Lueger

56'▲L. Breznik←▼L. Mazuchova

85'▲R. Krajinovic←▼S. Grossgasteiger

90+4'▲E. Makalic←▼Z. Kustrin

90+4'▲T. Sipka←▼M. Spiess

Sturm Graz W substitutes

1Pasar24Kunstek5Makalic17Breznik11Krajinovic12Hammrich29Sipka

Frauenliga: First Vienna W 3–5 Sturm Graz W

Sturm Graz W beat First Vienna W 5-3 in Frauenliga on August 29, 2025.

Goals: L. Kovar (11' o.g.), S. Jakobsen (27'), P. Pfanner (50'), M. Spiess (61'), Z. Kustrin (69', 87'), L. Felix (71'), D. Lueger (85').

The match was played at Naturarena Hohe Warte in Wien.

First Vienna W vs Sturm Graz W — Frauenliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Frauenliga: First Vienna W 3–5 Sturm Graz W