First Vienna W 1–2 Altach / Vorderland W

First Vienna W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Altach / Vorderland W

10/8/2023

Frauenliga · Round 5Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

First Vienna W36%

×Draw22%

Altach / Vorderland W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

First Vienna WExpected goals in this matchAltach / Vorderland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.91

First Vienna W

1.77

Altach / Vorderland W

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 27 away

2.29

creates per match

2.52

1.29

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

First Vienna W

2.29

Altach / Vorderland W

2.52

allows per match

First Vienna W

1.29

Altach / Vorderland W

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

First Vienna W+0.00on par

Altach / Vorderland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna W ↓

Altach / Vorderland W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

First Vienna W or draw

58%

First Vienna W or Altach / Vorderland W

78%

Draw or Altach / Vorderland W

64%

Winning margin

First Vienna W wins by 2+

19%

Altach / Vorderland W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

First Vienna W 1+ goals

83%

First Vienna W 2+ goals

53%

First Vienna W 3+ goals

26%

Altach / Vorderland W 1+ goals

85%

Altach / Vorderland W 2+ goals

57%

Altach / Vorderland W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

First Vienna W (draw refunded)

46%

Altach / Vorderland W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Altach / Vorderland W away — creates 2.52, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna W attack 2.29 + Altach / Vorderland W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.77

Altach / Vorderland W attack 2.52 + First Vienna W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

First Vienna W scores more

36%

level

22%

Altach / Vorderland W scores more

42%

Altach / Vorderland W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Altach / Vorderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff