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Firpo vs Municipal Limeño — Primera Division 2019

Firpo
Firpo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Municipal Limeño
Municipal Limeño
4/27/2025Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 21Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Firpo45%
×Draw28%
Municipal Limeño27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Firpo
1.33
Municipal Limeño
0.97

Firpo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 130 away

creates per match

Firpo
1.33
Municipal Limeño
1.07

allows per match

Firpo
0.86
Municipal Limeño
1.32

finishing

Firpo+0.00on par
Municipal Limeño+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Firpo ↓

Municipal Limeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Firpo or draw
73%
Firpo or Municipal Limeño
72%
Draw or Municipal Limeño
55%

Winning margin

Firpo wins by 2+
21%
Municipal Limeño wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Firpo 1+ goals
74%
Firpo 2+ goals
38%
Firpo 3+ goals
15%
Municipal Limeño 1+ goals
62%
Municipal Limeño 2+ goals
25%
Municipal Limeño 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Firpo (draw refunded)
62%
Municipal Limeño (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Firpo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 131 matches

Municipal Limeño away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Firpo attack 1.33 + Municipal Limeño defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Municipal Limeño attack 1.07 + Firpo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Firpo scores more
45%
level
28%
Municipal Limeño scores more
27%

Firpo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Firpo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Firpo 2–2 Municipal Limeño

Firpo and Municipal Limeño drew 2-2 in Primera Division on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera in Usulután.