Firpo 0–2 Isidro Metapán: Result & Stats

Firpo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Isidro Metapán

4/16/2026

Primera Division · Clausura - 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Firpo44%

×Draw28%

Isidro Metapán28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FirpoExpected goals in this matchIsidro Metapán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.97

Firpo

1.29

Isidro Metapán

0.97

Firpo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 147 away

1.33

creates per match

1.07

0.86

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Firpo

1.33

Isidro Metapán

1.07

allows per match

Firpo

0.86

Isidro Metapán

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Firpo+0.00on par

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Firpo ↓

Isidro Metapán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Firpo or draw

72%

Firpo or Isidro Metapán

72%

Draw or Isidro Metapán

56%

Winning margin

Firpo wins by 2+

20%

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Firpo 1+ goals

72%

Firpo 2+ goals

37%

Firpo 3+ goals

14%

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals

62%

Isidro Metapán 2+ goals

25%

Isidro Metapán 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Firpo (draw refunded)

61%

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Firpo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 131 matches

Isidro Metapán away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Firpo attack 1.33 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Isidro Metapán attack 1.07 + Firpo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Firpo scores more

44%

level

28%

Isidro Metapán scores more

28%

Firpo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Firpo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff