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Firpo vs Chalatenango — Primera Division 2019

Firpo
Firpo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chalatenango
Chalatenango
10/8/2022Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 6Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Firpo49%
×Draw26%
Chalatenango25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Firpo
1.54
Chalatenango
1.02

Firpo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 74 away

creates per match

Firpo
1.33
Chalatenango
1.18

allows per match

Firpo
0.86
Chalatenango
1.74

finishing

Firpo+0.00on par
Chalatenango+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Firpo ↓

Chalatenango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Firpo or draw
75%
Firpo or Chalatenango
74%
Draw or Chalatenango
51%

Winning margin

Firpo wins by 2+
25%
Chalatenango wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Firpo 1+ goals
79%
Firpo 2+ goals
45%
Firpo 3+ goals
20%
Chalatenango 1+ goals
64%
Chalatenango 2+ goals
27%
Chalatenango 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Firpo (draw refunded)
66%
Chalatenango (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Firpo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 131 matches

Chalatenango away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Firpo attack 1.33 + Chalatenango defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chalatenango attack 1.18 + Firpo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Firpo scores more
49%
level
26%
Chalatenango scores more
25%

Firpo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Firpo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Firpo 0–0 Chalatenango

Firpo and Chalatenango drew 0-0 in Primera Division on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera in Usulután.