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Firpo vs Atlético Marte — Primera Division 2019

Firpo
Firpo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Marte
Atlético Marte
3/20/2022Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 1st Phase - 13Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Firpo51%
×Draw26%
Atlético Marte23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Firpo
1.48
Atlético Marte
0.89

Firpo creates 66% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 56 away

creates per match

Firpo
1.33
Atlético Marte
0.91

allows per match

Firpo
0.86
Atlético Marte
1.63

finishing

Firpo+0.00on par
Atlético Marte+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Firpo ↓

Atlético Marte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Firpo or draw
77%
Firpo or Atlético Marte
74%
Draw or Atlético Marte
49%

Winning margin

Firpo wins by 2+
26%
Atlético Marte wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Firpo 1+ goals
77%
Firpo 2+ goals
43%
Firpo 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Marte 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Marte 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Marte 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Firpo (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Marte (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Firpo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 131 matches

Atlético Marte away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Firpo attack 1.33 + Atlético Marte defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético Marte attack 0.91 + Firpo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Firpo scores more
51%
level
26%
Atlético Marte scores more
23%

Firpo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Firpo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Firpo vs Atlético Marte

Atlético Marte beat Firpo 2-1 in Primera Division on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Sergio Torres Rivera in Usulután.