Fiorentino 1–1 San Giovanni: Result & Stats

Fiorentino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

San Giovanni

2/21/2024

League #404 · Round 22Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fiorentino34%

×Draw26%

San Giovanni40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinoExpected goals in this matchSan Giovanni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.38

Fiorentino

1.26

San Giovanni

1.38

San Giovanni creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 50 away

1.00

creates per match

1.22

1.53

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Fiorentino

1.00

San Giovanni

1.22

allows per match

Fiorentino

1.53

San Giovanni

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentino+0.00on par

San Giovanni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentino ↓

San Giovanni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fiorentino or draw

60%

Fiorentino or San Giovanni

74%

Draw or San Giovanni

66%

Winning margin

Fiorentino wins by 2+

15%

San Giovanni wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Fiorentino 1+ goals

72%

Fiorentino 2+ goals

36%

Fiorentino 3+ goals

13%

San Giovanni 1+ goals

75%

San Giovanni 2+ goals

40%

San Giovanni 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fiorentino (draw refunded)

46%

San Giovanni (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentino at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

San Giovanni away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.52 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentino attack 1.00 + San Giovanni defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

San Giovanni attack 1.22 + Fiorentino defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fiorentino scores more

34%

level

26%

San Giovanni scores more

40%

San Giovanni at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Giovanni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff