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Fiorentina W vs Slavia Praha W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Fiorentina W
Fiorentina W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Slavia Praha W
Slavia Praha W
12/10/2020UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsStadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fiorentina W11%
×Draw14%
Slavia Praha W75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina W
1.06
Slavia Praha W
2.94

Slavia Praha W creates 177% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fiorentina W
0.50
Slavia Praha W
1.38

allows per match

Fiorentina W
4.50
Slavia Praha W
1.62

finishing

Fiorentina W+0.00on par
Slavia Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina W ↓

Slavia Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Fiorentina W or draw
25%
Fiorentina W or Slavia Praha W
86%
Draw or Slavia Praha W
89%

Winning margin

Fiorentina W wins by 2+
4%
Slavia Praha W wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Fiorentina W 1+ goals
65%
Fiorentina W 2+ goals
29%
Fiorentina W 3+ goals
9%
Slavia Praha W 1+ goals
95%
Slavia Praha W 2+ goals
79%
Slavia Praha W 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina W (draw refunded)
13%
Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina W at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

Slavia Praha W away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina W attack 0.50 + Slavia Praha W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.06

Slavia Praha W attack 1.38 + Fiorentina W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Fiorentina W scores more
11%
level
14%
Slavia Praha W scores more
75%

Slavia Praha W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Slavia Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Fiorentina W 2–2 Slavia Praha W

Fiorentina W and Slavia Praha W drew 2-2 in UEFA Champions League Women on December 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.