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Fiorentina W vs Juventus W — League #139 2026

Fiorentina W
Fiorentina W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Juventus W
Juventus W
M. Janogy 81', 9'
E. Severini 25' (pen)
E. Stølen Godø 90+1'
4/25/2025League #139League #139 · Championship Round - 8Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fiorentina W46%
×Draw22%
Juventus W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina W
1.98
Juventus W
1.64

Fiorentina W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Fiorentina W
2.75
Juventus W
1.78

allows per match

Fiorentina W
1.50
Juventus W
1.22

finishing

Fiorentina W+0.00on par
Juventus W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina W ↓

Juventus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fiorentina W or draw
68%
Fiorentina W or Juventus W
78%
Draw or Juventus W
54%

Winning margin

Fiorentina W wins by 2+
26%
Juventus W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fiorentina W 1+ goals
86%
Fiorentina W 2+ goals
59%
Fiorentina W 3+ goals
31%
Juventus W 1+ goals
81%
Juventus W 2+ goals
49%
Juventus W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina W (draw refunded)
59%
Juventus W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Juventus W away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina W attack 2.75 + Juventus W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.98

Juventus W attack 1.78 + Fiorentina W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fiorentina W scores more
46%
level
22%
Juventus W scores more
32%

Fiorentina W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fiorentina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. JanogyFiorentina WFiorentina W · F
8.9

Match Events

9'
M. Janogy↳ S. Bredgaard
25'
E. SeveriniPenalty
40'
Paulina Käte Krumbiegel
59'
Sofie Bredgaard
60'
B. Bonansea← P. Krumbiegel
61'
E. Schatzer← H. Bennison
61'
C. Girelli← A. Lehmann
68'
F. Curmark← M. Catena
75'
S. Cantore← A. Vangsgaard
75'
A. Brighton← M. Rosucci
77'
L. Pastrenge← Vero
77'
T. Della Peruta← S. Bredgaard
78'
Eva Schatzer
81'
M. Janogy↳ E. Severini
88'
M. Longo← A. Bonfantini
88'
M. Georgieva← M. Janogy
90+1'
E. Stølen Godø

Possession

49%Fiorentina

Shots

16Fiorentina

Pass accuracy

49%Fiorentina

Statistics

FiorentinaJuventus
Overview
49%Possession51%
16Total Shots16
8Corners6
8Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots16
6On Target6
6Off Target8
4Blocked2
13Inside Box12
3Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
376Total Passes366
318Accurate Passes317
85%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Fiorentina W vs Juventus W

Fiorentina W beat Juventus W 3-1 in League #139 on April 25, 2025.

Goals: M. Janogy (9', 81'), E. Severini (25' pen), E. Stølen Godø (90+1').

Juventus W controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park in Bagno a Ripoli.