Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fiorentina W vs Juventus W — Coppa Italia Women 2024

Fiorentina W
Fiorentina W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Juventus W
Juventus Wadvanced
2/16/2025Coppa Italia WomenCoppa Italia Women · Semi-finalsStadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fiorentina W15%
×Draw18%
Juventus W67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina W
1.04
Juventus W
2.38

Juventus W creates 129% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fiorentina W
1.25
Juventus W
3.50

allows per match

Fiorentina W
1.25
Juventus W
0.83

finishing

Fiorentina W+0.00on par
Juventus W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina W ↓

Juventus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fiorentina W or draw
33%
Fiorentina W or Juventus W
82%
Draw or Juventus W
85%

Winning margin

Fiorentina W wins by 2+
5%
Juventus W wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Fiorentina W 1+ goals
65%
Fiorentina W 2+ goals
28%
Fiorentina W 3+ goals
9%
Juventus W 1+ goals
91%
Juventus W 2+ goals
68%
Juventus W 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina W (draw refunded)
18%
Juventus W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Juventus W away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina W attack 1.25 + Juventus W defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Juventus W attack 3.50 + Fiorentina W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Fiorentina W scores more
15%
level
18%
Juventus W scores more
67%

Juventus W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Juventus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina W vs Juventus W

Juventus W beat Fiorentina W 3-2 in Coppa Italia Women on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park in Bagno a Ripoli.