Fiorentina 1–0 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Udinese

Nikola Milenković 72'

10/6/2019

Serie A · Round 7Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Fiorentina51%

×Draw25%

Udinese24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.06

Fiorentina

1.65

Udinese

1.06

Fiorentina creates 56% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

1.72

creates per match

1.05

1.06

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.72

Udinese

1.05

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.06

Udinese

1.57

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.53scores less

Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

76%

Fiorentina or Udinese

75%

Draw or Udinese

49%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

27%

Udinese wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

81%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

49%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

23%

Udinese 1+ goals

65%

Udinese 2+ goals

29%

Udinese 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

68%

Udinese (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 27 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.72 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Udinese attack 1.05 + Fiorentina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fiorentina scores more

51%

level

25%

Udinese scores more

24%

Fiorentina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

78

Erick Pulgar

Fiorentina · M

8.1

Match Events

39'

Gaetano Castrovilli

55'

Samir

63'

Kevin Lasagna← Ilija Nestorovski

64'

Marco Benassi← Milan Badelj

72'

Nikola Milenković↳ Erick Pulgar

74'

Nicholas Opoku

78'

Antonín Barák← Rolando Mandragora

81'

Szymon Żurkowski← Gaetano Castrovilli

85'

Hidde ter Avest← Jens Stryger Larsen

86'

Rachid Ghezzal← Franck Ribéry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaUdinese

Overview

50%Possession50%

16Total Shots8

12Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots8

4On Target1

5Off Target6

7Blocked1

11Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

435Total Passes426

356Accurate Passes334

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2