Fiorentina 2–0 The New Saints: Result & Stats

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

The New Saints

10/3/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Fiorentina51%

×Draw22%

The New Saints27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchThe New Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.39

Fiorentina

1.99

The New Saints

1.39

Fiorentina creates 43% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

2.41

creates per match

1.56

1.22

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Fiorentina

2.41

The New Saints

1.56

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.22

The New Saints

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par

The New Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

The New Saints →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

73%

Fiorentina or The New Saints

78%

Draw or The New Saints

49%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

30%

The New Saints wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

86%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

59%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

32%

The New Saints 1+ goals

75%

The New Saints 2+ goals

40%

The New Saints 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

66%

The New Saints (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

The New Saints away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 2.41 + The New Saints defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.99

The New Saints attack 1.56 + Fiorentina defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fiorentina scores more

51%

level

22%

The New Saints scores more

27%

Fiorentina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff