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Fiorentina vs Sigma Olomouc — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
10/2/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fiorentina58%
×Draw22%
Sigma Olomouc21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
2.00
Sigma Olomouc
1.11

Fiorentina creates 80% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 5 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
2.41
Sigma Olomouc
1.00

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.22
Sigma Olomouc
1.60

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
79%
Fiorentina or Sigma Olomouc
78%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
42%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
34%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
86%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
59%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
32%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
67%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
30%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
74%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 2.41 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.00 + Fiorentina defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fiorentina scores more
58%
level
22%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
21%

Fiorentina at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Sigma Olomouc

Fiorentina beat Sigma Olomouc 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence.