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Fiorentina vs Real Betis — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
AET
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Real Betis
Real Betis
5/8/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Semi-finalsStadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fiorentina40%
×Draw25%
Real Betis35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.52
Real Betis
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
2.41
Real Betis
1.63

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.22
Real Betis
0.63

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par
Real Betis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Real Betis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
65%
Fiorentina or Real Betis
75%
Draw or Real Betis
60%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
19%
Real Betis wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
78%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
45%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
20%
Real Betis 1+ goals
76%
Real Betis 2+ goals
41%
Real Betis 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
53%
Real Betis (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Real Betis away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 2.41 + Real Betis defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Betis attack 1.63 + Fiorentina defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fiorentina scores more
40%
level
25%
Real Betis scores more
35%

Fiorentina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Real Betis

Fiorentina beat Real Betis 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on May 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.