Fiorentina 0–1 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Parma

R. Inglese 45+1'

12/26/2018

Serie A · Round 18Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Fiorentina55%

×Draw25%

Parma21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.91

Fiorentina

1.65

Parma

0.91

Fiorentina creates 81% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 26 away

1.70

creates per match

0.80

1.01

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Parma

0.80

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.01

Parma

1.60

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

Parma-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

79%

Fiorentina or Parma

75%

Draw or Parma

45%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

30%

Parma wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

81%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

49%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

23%

Parma 1+ goals

60%

Parma 2+ goals

23%

Parma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

73%

Parma (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

Parma away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Parma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Parma attack 0.80 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fiorentina scores more

55%

level

25%

Parma scores more

21%

Fiorentina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

L. Sepe

Parma · G

8.7

Match Events

13'

18'

31'

40'

40'

V. Laurini← N. Milenković

45+1'

R. Inglese↳ A. Deiola

46'

M. Scozzarella← L. Štulac

54'

Gerson← M. Benassi

65'

Vitor Hugo

69'

F. Ceccherini← E. Fernandes

74'

Jonathan Biabiany

75'

A. Barillà← L. Rigoni

87'

Y. Gervinho← L. Siligardi

88'

Gerson

89'

Roberto Inglese

90'

Alessandro Deiola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaParma

Overview

67%Possession33%

34Total Shots6

9Corners2

16Fouls15

Shots

34Total Shots6

8On Target2

14Off Target1

12Blocked3

21Inside Box1

13Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

504Total Passes249

430Accurate Passes169

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

16Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3