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Fiorentina vs Maccabi Haifa — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
3/14/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fiorentina56%
×Draw22%
Maccabi Haifa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.91
Maccabi Haifa
1.11

Fiorentina creates 72% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 10 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
2.41
Maccabi Haifa
1.00

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.22
Maccabi Haifa
1.40

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par
Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Maccabi Haifa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
78%
Fiorentina or Maccabi Haifa
78%
Draw or Maccabi Haifa
44%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
32%
Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
85%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
57%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
30%
Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
67%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
30%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
72%
Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Maccabi Haifa away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 2.41 + Maccabi Haifa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.91

Maccabi Haifa attack 1.00 + Fiorentina defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fiorentina scores more
56%
level
22%
Maccabi Haifa scores more
22%

Fiorentina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Fiorentina 1–1 Maccabi Haifa

Fiorentina and Maccabi Haifa drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.