Fiorentina 2–3 Lech Poznan: Result & Stats

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Lech Poznan

G. Castrovilli 90+2'

R. Sottil 78'

A. Sobiech 69'

K. Velde 65' (pen)

Afonso Sousa 9'

4/20/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finalsStadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fiorentina49%

×Draw22%

Lech Poznan28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchLech Poznan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.39

Fiorentina

1.90

Lech Poznan

1.39

Fiorentina creates 37% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

2.41

creates per match

1.56

1.22

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Fiorentina

2.41

Lech Poznan

1.56

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.22

Lech Poznan

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Lech Poznan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Lech Poznan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

72%

Fiorentina or Lech Poznan

78%

Draw or Lech Poznan

51%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

28%

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

85%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

56%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

29%

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

75%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

40%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

64%

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 2.41 + Lech Poznan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.90

Lech Poznan attack 1.56 + Fiorentina defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fiorentina scores more

49%

level

22%

Lech Poznan scores more

28%

Fiorentina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. González

Fiorentina · F

7.9

Match Events

9'

17'

19'

23'

31'

Joel Pereira← A. Czerwiński

35'

Nikola Milenković

46'

L. Martínez← N. Milenković

54'

A. Terzić← C. Biraghi

62'

Artur SobiechPenalty confirmed

63'

Aleksa Terzić

65'

K. VeldePenalty

69'

Lorenzo Venuti

69'

A. Sobiech↳ J. Karlström

70'

G. Castrovilli← G. Bonaventura

70'

Arthur Cabral← L. Jović

78'

R. Sottil

79'

M. Ishak← A. Sobiech

80'

A. Ba Loua← K. Velde

80'

F. Marchwiński← Afonso Sousa

82'

N. Kvekveskiri← R. Murawski

83'

Nika Kvekveskiri

86'

C. Kouamé← R. Sottil

88'

Michał Skóraś

90+2'

G. Castrovilli↳ N. González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaLech

Overview

49%Possession51%

17Total Shots9

1.65Expected Goals (xG)2.20

5Corners2

17Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots9

7On Target3

8Off Target4

2Blocked2

11Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

301Total Passes318

216Accurate Passes238

72%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan beat Fiorentina 3-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on April 20, 2023.

Goals: Afonso Sousa (9'), K. Velde (65' pen), A. Sobiech (69'), R. Sottil (78'), G. Castrovilli (90+2').

Lech Poznan controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.

Fiorentina vs Lech Poznan — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Lech Poznan