Fiorentina 7–0 Lask Linz: Result & Stats

Fiorentina

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Lask Linz

12/12/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Fiorentina56%

×Draw21%

Lask Linz23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchLask Linz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.22

Fiorentina

2.04

Lask Linz

1.22

Fiorentina creates 67% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

2.41

creates per match

1.22

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Fiorentina

2.41

Lask Linz

1.22

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.22

Lask Linz

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Lask Linz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

77%

Fiorentina or Lask Linz

79%

Draw or Lask Linz

44%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

33%

Lask Linz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

87%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

60%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

33%

Lask Linz 1+ goals

70%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

34%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

71%

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 2.41 + Lask Linz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

Lask Linz attack 1.22 + Fiorentina defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fiorentina scores more

56%

level

21%

Lask Linz scores more

23%

Fiorentina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff