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Fiorentina vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
12/11/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fiorentina69%
×Draw19%
Dynamo Kyiv11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
2.10
Dynamo Kyiv
0.71

Fiorentina creates 196% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 5 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
2.41
Dynamo Kyiv
0.20

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.22
Dynamo Kyiv
1.80

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
89%
Fiorentina or Dynamo Kyiv
81%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
31%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
45%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
88%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
62%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
35%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
51%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
16%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
86%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 2.41 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.20 + Fiorentina defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Fiorentina scores more
69%
level
19%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
11%

Fiorentina at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Fiorentina 2–1 Dynamo Kyiv

Fiorentina beat Dynamo Kyiv 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence.