Fiorentina 2–2 Bologna: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bologna

M. Kean 90' (pen)

A. Gudmundsson 74' (pen)

N. Cambiaghi 52'

S. Castro 25'

10/26/2025

Serie A · Round 8Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Fiorentina45%

×Draw27%

Bologna28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchBologna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.04

Fiorentina

1.41

Bologna

1.04

Fiorentina creates 36% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

1.70

creates per match

0.99

1.08

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Bologna

0.99

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.08

Bologna

1.11

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.50scores less

Bologna+0.53scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Bologna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

72%

Fiorentina or Bologna

73%

Draw or Bologna

55%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

22%

Bologna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

76%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

41%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

17%

Bologna 1+ goals

65%

Bologna 2+ goals

28%

Bologna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

62%

Bologna (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Bologna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bologna attack 0.99 + Fiorentina defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fiorentina scores more

45%

level

27%

Bologna scores more

28%

Fiorentina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

25'

36'

39'

47'

Moise KeanPenalty cancelled

52'

N. Cambiaghi↳ E. Holm

53'

N. Fortini← R. Gosens

54'

C. Ndour← R. Mandragora

54'

E. Dzeko← N. Fagioli

58'

Albert Guðmundsson

64'

J. Rowe← N. Cambiaghi

64'

T. Dallinga← S. Castro

65'

A. Sabiri← H. Nicolussi Caviglia

69'

Thijs DallingaGoal cancelled

71'

Emil Holm

74'

A. GudmundssonPenalty

76'

T. Pobega← G. Fabbian

76'

F. Bernardeschi← R. Orsolini

83'

Emil Holm

83'

Emil Holm

85'

R. Piccoli← L. Ranieri

86'

N. Casale←

90+6'

Edin Džeko

90+2'

Moise KeanPenalty confirmed

90+6'

Jhon Lucumí

90'

M. KeanPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaBologna

Overview

50%Possession50%

19Total Shots6

3.72Expected Goals (xG)0.55

5Corners6

13Fouls20

Shots

19Total Shots6

7On Target3

7Off Target2

5Blocked1

15Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

326Total Passes330

256Accurate Passes252

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.53Goals Prevented0.53

Discipline

13Fouls20

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

5Offsides3

Serie A: Fiorentina 2–2 Bologna

Fiorentina and Bologna drew 2-2 in Serie A on October 26, 2025.

Goals: S. Castro (25'), N. Cambiaghi (52'), A. Gudmundsson (74' pen), M. Kean (90' pen).

Fiorentina controlled possession (50%) and registered 19 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence.

Fiorentina vs Bologna — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Fiorentina 2–2 Bologna