Fiorentina 1–2 Bologna: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bologna

R. Saponara 19'

S. Posch 47'

R. Orsolini 14' (pen)

2/5/2023

Serie A · Round 21Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Fiorentina46%

×Draw27%

Bologna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchBologna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.02

Fiorentina

1.41

Bologna

1.02

Fiorentina creates 38% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 24 away

1.70

creates per match

1.01

1.02

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Bologna

1.01

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.02

Bologna

1.12

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

Bologna+0.53scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Bologna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

73%

Fiorentina or Bologna

73%

Draw or Bologna

54%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

22%

Bologna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

76%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

41%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

17%

Bologna 1+ goals

64%

Bologna 2+ goals

27%

Bologna 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

63%

Bologna (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.02 · 33 matches

Bologna away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.12 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Bologna defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bologna attack 1.01 + Fiorentina defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fiorentina scores more

46%

level

27%

Bologna scores more

27%

Fiorentina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. González

Fiorentina · F

7.9

Match Events

12'

Lewis FergusonPenalty confirmed

14'

R. OrsoliniPenalty

18'

Riccardo Orsolini

19'

R. Saponara↳ N. González

29'

Igor Júlio

46'

L. Martínez← Igor

47'

S. Posch↳ R. Orsolini

53'

Jerdy Schouten

61'

R. Mandragora← A. Barák

61'

Arthur Cabral← G. Bonaventura

67'

Nicolás Domínguez

71'

N. Moro← J. Schouten

72'

J. Brekalo← R. Saponara

72'

M. Barrow← R. Soriano

76'

Jhon Lucumí

82'

Rolando Mandragora

83'

M. Aebischer← L. Ferguson

83'

G. Kiriakopoulos← R. Orsolini

84'

A. Terzić← Dodô

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaBologna

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots11

1.34Expected Goals (xG)1.26

5Corners3

10Fouls25

Shots

17Total Shots11

6On Target7

7Off Target2

4Blocked2

10Inside Box8

7Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

511Total Passes329

409Accurate Passes231

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls25

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1

Serie A: Fiorentina 1–2 Bologna

Bologna beat Fiorentina 2-1 in Serie A on February 5, 2023.

Goals: R. Orsolini (14' pen), R. Saponara (19'), S. Posch (47').

Fiorentina controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.

Fiorentina vs Bologna — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Fiorentina 1–2 Bologna