Fiorentina 1–0 Bologna: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bologna

L. Torreira 70'

3/13/2022

Serie A · Round 29Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Fiorentina46%

×Draw27%

Bologna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchBologna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.00

Fiorentina

1.41

Bologna

1.00

Fiorentina creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 23 away

1.71

creates per match

0.99

1.01

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.71

Bologna

0.99

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.01

Bologna

1.11

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

Bologna+0.53scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Bologna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

73%

Fiorentina or Bologna

73%

Draw or Bologna

54%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

22%

Bologna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

76%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

41%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

17%

Bologna 1+ goals

63%

Bologna 2+ goals

26%

Bologna 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

63%

Bologna (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.01 · 32 matches

Bologna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.71 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bologna attack 0.99 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fiorentina scores more

46%

level

27%

Bologna scores more

27%

Fiorentina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

L. Torreira

Fiorentina · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

Kevin Bonifazi

41'

Kevin Bonifazi

41'

Kevin Bonifazi

58'

L. Binks← R. Orsolini

59'

Arthur Cabral← K. Piątek

59'

J. Ikoné← R. Sottil

59'

M. Barrow← R. Soriano

65'

A. Duncan← G. Bonaventura

70'

L. Torreira

73'

Adama Soumaoro

76'

Lucas Torreira

77'

A. Terzić← C. Biraghi

78'

L. Venuti← Odriozola

78'

M. Aebischer← M. Svanberg

79'

M. Dijks← L. De Silvestri

79'

N. Sansone← G. Medel

86'

Aaron Hickey

90+3'

Nicola Sansone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaBologna

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots4

9Corners1

9Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots4

5On Target0

6Off Target3

3Blocked1

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

467Total Passes302

388Accurate Passes219

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2