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Fiorentina vs Bologna — Serie A 2026

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bologna
Bologna
1/3/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 15Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Fiorentina46%
×Draw27%
Bologna27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.42
Bologna
1.02

Fiorentina creates 39% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 25 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
1.70
Bologna
1.02

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.01
Bologna
1.13

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less
Bologna+0.54scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Bologna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
73%
Fiorentina or Bologna
73%
Draw or Bologna
54%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
22%
Bologna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
76%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
41%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
17%
Bologna 1+ goals
64%
Bologna 2+ goals
27%
Bologna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
63%
Bologna (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

Bologna away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Bologna defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bologna attack 1.02 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fiorentina scores more
46%
level
27%
Bologna scores more
27%

Fiorentina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Fiorentina 0–0 Bologna

Fiorentina and Bologna drew 0-0 in Serie A on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.