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Fiorentina vs AEK Athens FC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
11/27/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fiorentina49%
×Draw22%
AEK Athens FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.89
AEK Athens FC
1.39

Fiorentina creates 36% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
2.41
AEK Athens FC
1.55

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.22
AEK Athens FC
1.36

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par
AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

AEK Athens FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
72%
Fiorentina or AEK Athens FC
78%
Draw or AEK Athens FC
51%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
27%
AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
85%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
56%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
29%
AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
75%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
40%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
63%
AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 2.41 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.89

AEK Athens FC attack 1.55 + Fiorentina defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fiorentina scores more
49%
level
22%
AEK Athens FC scores more
28%

Fiorentina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC beat Fiorentina 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence.