Fiorentina 2–1 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AC Milan

3/4/2023

Serie A · Round 25Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Fiorentina40%

×Draw25%

AC Milan35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.33

Fiorentina

1.44

AC Milan

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.70

creates per match

1.57

1.08

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

AC Milan

1.57

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.08

AC Milan

1.17

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.50scores less

AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

65%

Fiorentina or AC Milan

75%

Draw or AC Milan

60%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

19%

AC Milan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

76%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

42%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

18%

AC Milan 1+ goals

74%

AC Milan 2+ goals

38%

AC Milan 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

53%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Fiorentina defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fiorentina scores more

40%

level

25%

AC Milan scores more

35%

Fiorentina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff